Dark skies loom over the global economy. The drums of a financial war echo through boardrooms, stock exchanges, and quiet living rooms. And at the center of the storm, a blood-red warning has been issued: recession is no longer a possibility—it’s knocking at the door.
In a chilling note titled “There Will Be Blood,” JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, has raised the alarm: the global economy now faces a 60% probability of recession, a massive leap from the previous 40%. The trigger? A sudden and sweeping declaration of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at the vast majority of America’s trading partners.
The message from Wall Street’s towering titan is clear—this is no longer about trade. This is about economic war.
“The largest tax hike on U.S. households and businesses since 1968,” Kasman writes, like a prophet in the final chapter of a financial apocalypse. And with that, the dominoes begin to fall.
These tariffs, ranging from 10% to a staggering 50%, strike at the heart of global trade routes. Countries across Asia, Europe, and the Americas are now caught in a tightening noose. Retaliation is expected. Sentiment is collapsing. Supply chains—once intricate and trusted—are fraying into chaos.
The Dollar Bleeds
The U.S. dollar, often seen as a pillar of global stability, has begun to hemorrhage. In premarket trading, the dollar index crashed 2.16%, plunging to its lowest level since October. Investors, spooked by whispers of a global trade war, are fleeing toward gold and other safe havens.
Even Goldman Sachs, no stranger to market storms, has revised its own forecasts, upping the chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 35%. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank issued its own grim prophecy—a potential dollar crisis, fueled by the firestorm of tariffs.
The Beginning of the End?
“We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year.”
– Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan
The words are cold. Clinical. But beneath the data lies a nightmare vision: unemployment lines stretching across cities, businesses shuttered by inflation and supply shocks, governments scrambling to contain panic. If these policies are fully enacted and held firm, we could witness one of the most devastating economic contractions in modern history.
This isn’t just about numbers. It’s about lives. Families. Nations on the brink. The global economy is being marched to the gallows, step by deliberate step.
And the noose is tightening.
Final Warning:
This isn’t just another downturn.
This is a systemic rupture, driven by political fire and economic fury. A perfect storm of nationalism, protectionism, and market fragility.
JPMorgan has spoken. The blood has already begun to spill.
The question is no longer if. The question is how much we will lose before it stops.
