The Hope of a Middle East Peace Amid Trump’s Return
Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. presidential election has sparked discussions and debates worldwide, particularly in the Middle East, where there’s cautious optimism that his leadership might bring stability to the region. Trump has previously promised to end conflicts in the Middle East, curb Iran’s influence, and even secure peace in regions such as Gaza and Lebanon. Now, with the weight of these promises, many wonder whether he can reconcile the longstanding tensions between Israel and Iran.
Trump’s Middle East Vision: A New Era or Familiar Obstacles?
Trump’s campaign promises include ending the Gaza conflict, securing the release of hostages, and minimizing Iran’s influence. Yet, experts argue that achieving these goals will be a formidable task. According to Abdullah Al-Junaid, a Middle East political analyst based in Bahrain, Trump would need to navigate delicate relationships, especially with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will expect significant concessions for Israel to make any peace gestures.
Netanyahu has high expectations: security assurances, discussions around the West Bank, and more control over areas like Gaza and Lebanon. Without meeting these demands, it’s unlikely that Netanyahu will fully support Trump’s broader vision of peace.
Revisiting the “Deal of the Century”
Trump’s 2020 “Deal of the Century” aimed to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, proposing an independent Palestinian state without Jerusalem as its capital or access to critical economic areas like the Jordan Valley. The plan was widely rejected by Palestinians and some Israelis and ultimately did not come to fruition. However, with Trump back in office, there’s potential for him to revive the proposal with a renewed focus on creating diplomatic relations, particularly with influential nations like Saudi Arabia.
The Biden administration attempted similar peace efforts but made little headway, and there’s cautious optimism that Trump might bring a fresh approach. Yet, Al-Junaid suggests that such efforts will face significant challenges unless Israel is willing to address Saudi Arabia’s core demand: a commitment to a two-state solution.
Regional Sentiment and Its Impact on Peace Efforts
The wider Middle Eastern view on Israel has soured due to recent escalations in Gaza and Lebanon, making it challenging to secure broader Arab support. Polls across 16 Arab countries, including those with diplomatic ties to Israel, reveal a decline in Israel’s favorability due to its recent actions in these territories. Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst from Tehran, argues that this decline in support presents a serious obstacle for Trump, as regional leaders face backlash at home for aligning with Israel while ignoring Palestinian and Lebanese struggles.
This regional discontent limits Trump’s ability to rally support among oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). If atrocities in Gaza and Lebanon persist, the idea of an expanded peace coalition may become even less attainable.
Security Demands and Diplomatic Pressures
For Netanyahu, security remains paramount. His demands include returning Israeli hostages, ensuring Gaza does not pose a threat, and weakening Hezbollah in Lebanon. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the Biden administration has not adequately supported these goals, especially regarding Hamas control in Rafah and Hezbollah’s stronghold near the Litani River.
Trump’s previous hardline stance toward Iran suggests that he may be more inclined to align with Netanyahu’s security concerns. During his first term, Trump imposed strict sanctions on Iran, ended the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. This aggressive approach could return, although experts warn that it risks igniting further regional conflicts.
Trump’s Balancing Act: Iran, Russia, and Global Stability
The dynamics of Trump’s potential Middle Eastern policy extend beyond Iran and Israel. Marandi suggests that Trump might consider reducing tensions with both Iran and Russia to prioritize American economic stability and avoid entanglements that could drain U.S. resources. Escalated conflicts in the Middle East could threaten vital oil and gas supplies, sparking global economic consequences, including potential surges in refugee migration toward the U.S. and Europe.
Al-Junaid proposes that a “balanced” U.S. approach toward Iran could support a broader peace strategy, perhaps even incorporating diplomatic solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Marandi is skeptical, suggesting that American foreign policy rarely pursues rational diplomacy, especially regarding adversaries like Iran and Russia.
A Look Ahead: Middle East Peace Under Trump’s Second Term?
While Trump’s promise to end wars aligns with his intention to expand the Abraham Accords and establish new alliances, his path is filled with complex geopolitical obstacles. Netanyahu’s unwavering stance on security, Iran’s influential role in regional dynamics, and the mixed opinions of Middle Eastern nations all complicate Trump’s ambition.
The question remains: Can Trump balance these competing interests to achieve a lasting peace in the Middle East?
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